Saturday, November 3, 2012

Statistical Tie? -- Ground Game Is Vital


This morning I was privileged to attend a conference call with Matt Kibbe of Freedomworks and several state level Tea Party activists.

Activists and campaign workers on both sides of the aisle are out in force. The reason why is simple. In local and state polls, particularly in so-called "swing" states and battleground districts are in pretty much statistical ties. Sure, most of them claim one or the other is up by a point or two. However, you need to read the "fine print". The samplings for the polls contain a rather small sample population, to start with. So, each one contains a certain margin of error that ranges from 3 to 5 percent. With the polling numbers within 5 points of each other, it becomes a statistical tie.

That makes the "ground game" more important. The "ground game" are the local, grass-roots efforts such as sign planting, phone banking, and door-knocking. The fruits of these efforts is more than obvious.

For example, in Pennsylvania, a candidate for US Senate was polling at near 19% for much of  the campaign. He is now polling at just over 45%, making the race a statistical tie, against entrenched encumbent Bob Casey Jr. According to one organizer in the battleground state, many so-called "blue-dog" Democrats are jumping party lines for two main reasons. The first reason is the coal industry. Regulations imposed by Obama as well as the party-line voting of Bob Casey Jr. have stifled the state's coal industry and hit the state hard. People are out of work. The economy is stagnated on its good days. Then one single number tips those still wobbling on the fence:  $16,000,000,000,000.00 (national debt).

Due to redistricting, illegal immigration, potential voter fraud, La Raza, La MeCHA, an influx of former Californians who sought to escape the failing California economy (and highest taxes in the country), and Katrina refugees who stayed for the nice desert climate; Arizona is teetering on being a "purple" state. In the congressional district race between Ron Barber and Martha McSally, you have a devout socialist (Barber) running against a Blue-Dog Democrat in RINO clothing (McSally). Jeff Flake finds himself in a tight race for the Senate seat the John Kyl retires from at the end of this term. On the ground efforts are keeping the fight close, with a possible edge to Flake. The urban areas around Tempe, Phoenix (Mesa, Chandler), and Tucson remain the vital districts.

In a note that is positive for conservatives in battleground  and swing states, "Fire Obama" signs have become very popular, even in these last hours. The demand is reportedly so high that the distribution centers are having trouble keeping enough of the signs in stock.
Fire Obama

With all of the reported energy and hard work in those grass-roots efforts, two other tactics are of concern: Voter Fraud and Voter Intimidation.

Those doing the grass-roots work, especially face to face engagements, are cautioned to obey laws around polling places. Remain more than the legal minimum distance from the polling places. Be informative. Use your manners. Do not even give the slightest appearance of intimidation.

I have personally witnessed voter intimidation at early voting places already this year.

Katie Pavlich, author of Operation Fast and Furious and contributing editor to Town Hall magazine, reported evidence that an organization directly associated with the Obama campaign took over a polling station and began to campaign directly to people who were in line awaiting a machine to cast their ballots. That is a violation of several election laws. It was a direct act of election tampering and voter intimidation. also reported the story, including a transcription of the official report made by the polling station volunteers who encountered the intimidation. 

If you encounter or witness an act of voter intimidation, contact law enforcement authorities immediately. Make sure you get a copy of any complaints filed. Do not hesitate to call a reporter to offer your story. If you can get video, legally, do so. Also, your state's Secretary of State is a key contact in the event you encounter voter intimidation.

Voter fraud is not an urban myth. It happens. James O'Keef and Project Veritas have uncovered many holes in the system and many cases of voter fraud. Hillary Clinton supporters did a documentary about it during the 2008 Democratic Party Primary. So far, I have seen evidence of three cases. One was a couple in Arizona who didn't receive their PEVL ballots. However, their ballots somehow were returned and filed. One of the signatures did not match, so election officials contacted the couple. The fraud was discovered, but not the perpetrators.  

One associate of mine encountered somebody with a forged ID attempting to vote. Unfortunately for the one attempting the fraud, the real person whose identity he stole had already voted. The incident has prompted a larger investigation into identity theft linked to a human smuggling ring.

In the third incident, the perpetrator was dumb enough to brag about his crimes on Facebook. Jim Turner posted a Facebook Status stating he had already voted four times in four different precincts and was planning to vote under his real name on election day. The status was documented with a screen-capture and posted onto Twitter. I investigated the individual's timeline, which did, indeed, still include that status. Both the "tweet" exposing the status and a copy of the screenshot are still available on several blogs. Mr. Turner has, since, removed that status and replaced it with one that claims a "vast right-wing conspiracy" deleted all of his previous statuses.

If you think you have witnessed an attempt at voter fraud, contact your closest on-duty poll watcher. Also, contact your state's Secretary of State office. If you are a victim of voter fraud, identity theft is also involved, most likely. Contact law enforcement officials. Also, contact everybody you would in any other case of potential identity theft.

Now let's get out there and win this! Expand The Map! GOTV!