Friday, April 5, 2013

March Numbers Indicate More Economic Trouble



The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly report for March 2013. The report opens with the U3 unemployment rate, stating that the rate is unchanged at 7.6% with little change to long-term (over 27 weeks) figures still around 4.6 million.

The bad news is, yet again, in the workforce participation rate. The WPR declined from 63.5% to 63.3%. That mean almost half a million people (496,000) stopped bothering to even try to find a job.

That artificially makes the U3 and U6 unemployment rates appear higher. The number of unemployed versus the whole population of eligible workers has, in fact, jumped.

If the workforce were the same today that it was in December 2008, Bush's last full month in office, the U3 unemployment would be closer to 11.2%. The U6 would be 15.6% instead of the 12.5% reported.

The stagnant U3 unemployment rate taken into complete context with the declining participation rate and increasing consumer price index (CPI), an indicator of inflation, displays a dismal sight.

In addition the increased printing of fiat money and the recent jumps in the Dow Industrial Average, S&P 500 and NASDAQ figures indicate another economic "bubble burst" might be imminent. The US still has not yet recovered from the last recession.

Other federal executive policies revolving around interest rates, government housing subsidies, mortgage lending policies similar to the Dodd-Frank fiasco that caused the last housing market bust, and the increased participation in SNAP, TANF, and other government subsidies dim the picture even more.

Scriptures speak of seven fat years and seven lean years. We are in the seven lean years. They are about to get leaner. These policies may even prevent the seven fat years from returning on time.